Welcome to our in-depth weekly analysis of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) for Week 1 of December 2025. This report provides a comprehensive review of the latest price action, technical and fundamental drivers, and actionable scenarios for traders and investors. 📈💡

1. Executive Summary

Bearish momentum dominates Bitcoin’s technical landscape this week. The price is trading below key moving averages, with a falling RSI and a possible descending triangle pattern. Recent news highlights macroeconomic uncertainty, especially around the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, and seasonal factors that could influence volatility. Let’s break down the details.

2. Latest News & Market Catalysts (Past 7 Days)

3. Technical Analysis

• Trend: Downtrend — Price is below both the 10-day and 50-day moving averages, forming clear lower highs and lower lows.

• Support Levels:

  • Major: $87,000 (recent low)

  • Minor: $85,000

• Resistance Levels:

  • Major: $90,000 (psychological and EMA)

  • Minor: $92,000

• Momentum: RSI at 34.64 (bearish, approaching oversold territory). MACD histogram likely negative, confirming bearish momentum.

• Pattern: Possible descending triangle forming, with recent bounces off lower support.

• Volume: Increasing on declines, reducing on rebounds — a classic sign of bearish pressure.

Chart Structure & Interpretation

The current chart structure suggests a high probability of further downside unless Bitcoin can reclaim the $90,000–$92,000 resistance zone. The descending triangle pattern, combined with bearish volume dynamics, points to continued selling pressure. If support at $87,000 fails, a move toward $85,000 or even $83,000 is likely.

4. Fundamental & News Impact

• Macro Drivers: The main catalyst is the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. A rate cut could provide a short-term boost, but the expected 25bps cut may not be enough to reverse the bearish trend if broader risk sentiment remains cautious.

• Seasonality: Historically, December has delivered strong rallies for Bitcoin, averaging 20%. However, this year’s weak November and macro headwinds could dampen the effect.

• Institutional Activity: Increased ETF inflows and whale accumulation at lower prices suggest some confidence in a rebound, but retail participation is still low.

• Risks: Delays or disappointment in Fed policy, regulatory actions, or a shift in global risk appetite could trigger further declines.

5. Actionable Scenarios for the Upcoming Week

6. Risk Management & Trade Ideas

• Risk only 0.5–1% of capital per trade.

• Use ATR (14-day) to set dynamic stop-losses based on volatility.

• Monitor Fed policy updates and macro headlines closely.

• Be prepared for higher volatility around the Fed meeting and year-end flows.

7. Conclusion & Outlook

Bitcoin enters December 2025 with a bearish technical bias, pressured by macro uncertainty and cautious sentiment. While a seasonal rally is possible, the path of least resistance remains to the downside unless key resistance levels are reclaimed. Traders should stay nimble, manage risk tightly, and watch for confirmation from both price action and macro news.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a professional before making trading decisions.