Amazon (AMZN) Weekly Analysis & Outlook – Week 43, October 2025
Ideas
Oct 20, 2025
3 Min Read
In-depth weekly analysis of Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) for Week 43, October 2025. Includes technical chart review, news, earnings outlook, support/resistance, and actionable trading scenarios.
Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) – Weekly Analysis for October 20–26, 2025 (Week 43)
Welcome to this week’s comprehensive analysis of Amazon stock (AMZN), covering the period of October 20–26, 2025. This blog post delivers a world-class, actionable breakdown of AMZN’s technical and fundamental landscape, integrating the latest news, chart insights, and scenario planning for traders and investors. 📊
📰 Latest News & Catalysts (Past 7 Days)
Q3 Earnings Preview: Amazon will report its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 30, 2025. Analyst EPS estimates have ticked up to $1.60, and consensus remains bullish with a 12-month price target near $264.64 (source, source).
Macroeconomic & Company Drivers: Positive expectations for AWS and holiday hiring, plus new Prime content (NBA streaming), support sentiment. However, macro risks (tariffs, market volatility) and recent insider selling have added caution (source).
Technical Backdrop: AMZN is trading below key moving averages, forming a descending triangle with bearish momentum, but RSI is nearing oversold territory (source).
📈 Technical Analysis
Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
Trend | Downtrend – Price below 10- and 21-day EMAs, lower highs/lows |
Support Levels | 211.00 (major), 205.00 (minor) |
Resistance Levels | 221.00 (major), 217.80 (minor, near 10-day EMA) |
Pattern | Descending triangle, recent swing highs at 221.00 |
Momentum | RSI 38.05 (bearish, near oversold); MACD negative |
Volume | Decreasing on rallies, indicating weak buying interest |
🔍 Chart Structure & Interpretation
Price action is bearish, with AMZN trading below both the 10- and 21-day EMAs.
The descending triangle pattern signals continuation risk to the downside, especially if support at $211 is breached.
Volume analysis shows declining participation on upward moves, a sign of weak conviction among buyers.
MACD is negative, reinforcing the bearish setup, while RSI at 38.05 suggests the stock is approaching oversold territory, which could trigger a technical bounce if support holds.
🧮 Fundamental & News Impact
Upcoming Earnings: The Q3 report on October 30 is the key near-term catalyst. Analyst upgrades and a consensus price target of $264.64 reflect optimism, but technicals are currently bearish.
Business Drivers: AWS growth, holiday hiring, and new Prime content (NBA streaming) are expected to support revenue. However, macro risks (tariffs, market volatility) and insider selling could weigh on sentiment.
Valuation: Forward P/E is 30.7–33.8, with a market cap of ~$2.27T. The stock’s beta is 1.28, indicating moderate volatility.
📊 Scenario Planning: Possible Outcomes for the Week
Scenario | Trigger/Signal | Key Levels | Probability | Actionable Idea |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Bullish 🟢 | Strong bounce off $211 support, volume uptick, or positive pre-earnings news | Above $217.80 (minor resistance), $221 (major resistance) | Low to moderate (unless macro/earnings news surprises) | Wait for confirmation above $221 before considering long positions; target $228 |
Bearish 🔴 | Breakdown below $211 with volume, continued weak momentum | Below $211 (major support), $205 (next support) | Moderate to high (trend and technicals favor downside) | Short on breakdown below $211, target $205; stop-loss above $217.80 |
Neutral 🟡 | Sideways action between $211 and $221, low volume, no clear catalyst | $211–$221 range | Moderate (ahead of earnings, market may wait for clarity) | Consider range trading or staying on the sidelines until a breakout |
🛡️ Risk Management & Trade Ideas
Aggressive: Short at $214 (continuation below recent low), stop-loss $219.50, target $205. Rationale: follow trend with stop above resistance.
Conservative: Wait for a rally to $217.80 resistance, short in $217.80–$219.00 zone, stop-loss $222.00, target $211.
Invalidation: Sustained break above $222.00 would shift bias to neutral/bullish.
Risk 0.5–1% of capital per trade to manage volatility and event risk.
🔑 Key Takeaways
Amazon faces a bearish technical setup this week, with downside risk if $211 fails.
Upcoming earnings and macro factors could trigger volatility or reversal.
Traders should watch for a breakout from the $211–$221 range for directional cues.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own research or consult a professional before making trading decisions.
Julian Vance
Julian Vance is a quantitative strategist focused on algorithmic trading in crypto and futures. His work is dedicated to exploring how traders can leverage technology and data to gain a competitive edge.
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