Welcome to our in-depth weekly analysis of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) for Week 2 of February 2026. In this comprehensive blog, we’ll break down the latest technical chart, review key news and earnings, interpret fundamental and macro drivers, and provide actionable scenarios for traders and investors.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research before making trading decisions.

📈 Tesla (TSLA) Technical Chart Overview

• Trend: Sideways/Neutral – Price is consolidating around the 10-day moving average, lacking clear direction.

• Support Levels: $430.00 (major), $420.00 (minor)

• Resistance Levels: $440.00 (major), $448.00 (minor)

• Momentum: RSI at 45.68 (neutral, neither overbought nor oversold)

• Volume: Neutral – No significant spikes, suggesting indecision

• Pattern: Range-bound between $420 and $440

• MACD: Flat, confirming the lack of momentum

📰 Latest News & Short-Term Catalysts

• xAI Investment & Cybercab Update: Tesla announced a $2B investment in xAI, boosting shares as Elon Musk pivots toward AI/robotics. Cybercab (robotaxi) production is on track for April 2026, but initial rollout will be slow due to regulatory caps (source).

• Model Y Delivery Delays: China-specific six-seater Model Y L deliveries are now stretched to February 2026 amid falling sales (source).

• Product Pipeline & AI Focus: Tesla is prioritizing Cybercab, the $25K Model 2 (to counter Chinese rivals), and the Optimus Gen 3 humanoid robot, now at human-equivalent dexterity and deployed in factories (source).

🔍 Technical Analysis

• Support/Resistance: The $430 level is acting as a strong base, with $440 as the ceiling for the current range. A break below $420 could trigger a bearish move, while a close above $440 would likely attract momentum buyers.

• Pattern: TSLA is consolidating in a horizontal range ($420–$440). This typically precedes a breakout, but direction is unclear until a level is breached.

• MACD: The MACD is flat, confirming the lack of momentum and supporting the range-bound thesis.

• Volume: No significant volume spikes, which suggests a lack of conviction from both bulls and bears. Watch for volume surges on any breakout.

• Momentum: RSI at 45.68 indicates weak momentum, with no imminent reversal signals.

💡 Fundamental & News Impact

• Earnings: Q3 2025 revenue hit a record $28.1B, but Q4 saw delivery misses and early 2026 volatility. Automotive gross margins rose to 17.9% (ex-credits), beating expectations despite revenue decline.

• AI & Robotics: The $2B xAI investment and focus on Cybercab/Optimus highlight Tesla’s pivot toward high-margin, scalable businesses beyond cars.

• Sales Outlook: 2026 net income forecasts have dropped 56% over the past year, but price targets remain elevated as analysts focus on AI/robotics potential.

• Macro Risks: Regulatory caps on Cybercab, slowing EV sales, and competition from Chinese automakers remain key risks.

🚦 Scenarios for the Upcoming Week

• Bullish Setup: Consider buying on a confirmed breakout above $440, with targets at $448–$450 and a stop-loss below $435.

• Bearish Setup: Consider shorting on a confirmed break below $420, with targets at $410–$400 and a stop-loss above $425.

• Neutral/Range: Range traders may look to buy near $430 and sell near $440, with tight stops.

📊 Risk Management & Trade Ideas

• Risk no more than 1% of capital per trade.

• Use ATR (Average True Range) for dynamic stop-loss placement.

• Monitor volume for confirmation on breakouts.

• Stay alert to earnings commentary and regulatory headlines, as these could quickly shift sentiment.

🔗 Useful Resources

• Tesla surges on xAI investment

• Tesla 2026 Deep Dive

• Tesla shares rise despite weak sales

Stay tuned for next week’s analysis and remember to manage your risk! 🚀