NVIDIA (NVDA) Weekly Analysis & Outlook – Week 1 December 2025
Ideas
Dec 4, 2025
3 Min Read
Comprehensive weekly analysis for NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) for Week 1 December 2025. Includes technical chart, key news, support/resistance, MACD & volume, and actionable trading scenarios.
Welcome to the in-depth weekly analysis for NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) covering Week 1 of December 2025 (starting December 1, 2025). This blog provides a comprehensive review of NVDA’s technical chart, the latest news and catalysts, and actionable trading scenarios for the upcoming week. 📊
Latest News & Fundamental Context 📰
CEO Commentary & AI Market Sentiment: NVIDIA’s CEO addressed investor concerns about a potential AI market bubble, emphasizing continued strong demand and execution. Inventory rose 30-32% quarter-over-quarter, and supply commitments surged 63%, signaling robust forward demand. [Source]
Strong Earnings & Guidance: NVIDIA guided for next-quarter revenue of ~$65 billion, beating analyst forecasts and projecting a 14% QoQ growth. Gross profit margins are expected to approach 75%, with scale efficiencies offsetting rising costs. [Source]
Upcoming Event: NVIDIA will present at the UBS Global Tech and AI Conference on December 2, 2025, possibly offering further updates and insights. [Source]
Technical Analysis 📈
Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
Trend | Downtrend – price below 10-day and 50-day EMAs, lower lows since October. |
Support Levels | 170.00 (major), 160.00 (minor) |
Resistance Levels | 182.00 (major), 190.00 (minor) |
Pattern | Descending triangle forming; lower highs, recent swing high at 182.00 |
Momentum (RSI) | 41.48 (bearish, below 50) |
MACD | Bearish, declining price action below moving averages |
Volume | Increasing on declines, indicating strong selling pressure |
Chart Structure & Interpretation 🔍
Bearish Momentum: NVDA remains below key moving averages, confirming a short-term downtrend.
Descending Triangle: The formation of a descending triangle, with lower highs and a flat support zone around 170.00, often precedes a breakdown if selling persists.
Volume Confirmation: Rising volume on down days supports the bearish outlook, as sellers dominate recent sessions.
MACD & RSI: Both indicators suggest momentum remains with the bears, with RSI at 41.48 and price action below key averages.
Fundamental & News Impact 💡
Despite the technical bearishness, NVIDIA’s fundamentals remain robust. The company’s strong earnings guidance and margin outlook have provided a buffer against broader market volatility. CEO commentary has addressed AI bubble concerns, but ongoing inventory and supply commitment growth indicate confidence in future demand. The upcoming UBS Global Tech and AI Conference could serve as a short-term catalyst, with any positive surprises potentially reversing the current technical downtrend.
Possible Scenarios for the Upcoming Week 🔮
Scenario | Key Levels | Actionable Plan | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
Bullish 🟢 | Break above 182.00 (major resistance), next target 190.00 | Consider long positions on confirmed breakout above 182.00; stop-loss below 175.00 | Low-to-moderate (requires catalyst from event/news) |
Bearish 🔴 | Break below 170.00 (major support), next target 160.00 | Consider short positions below 170.00; stop-loss above 175.00 | Moderate-to-high (trend and volume favor sellers) |
Neutral ⚪ | Range-bound between 170.00–182.00 | Wait for breakout confirmation; avoid new positions until direction is clear | Moderate (possible ahead of conference/event) |
Risk Management & Trade Ideas 🛡️
Risk per trade: Limit to 1% of portfolio capital.
Stop-loss: Use ATR(14-week) to size stops appropriately.
Aggressive Bearish Play: Sell below 175.00, stop-loss at 182.00, target 165.00.
Conservative Bearish Play: Wait for a confirmed break below 170.00, sell 169.00–171.00, stop-loss at 175.00, target 160.00.
Bullish Reversal: Only consider long if weekly close is above 190.00, which would invalidate the bearish setup.
Summary Table 📝
Key Point | Details |
|---|---|
Technical Bias | Bearish (downtrend, descending triangle, strong selling volume) |
Fundamental Bias | Positive (strong earnings, robust demand, high margins) |
Short-term Catalyst | UBS Global Tech and AI Conference, Dec 2, 2025 |
Key Support | 170.00 |
Key Resistance | 182.00 |
Risk Level | Elevated (technical weakness vs. strong fundamentals) |
Conclusion 🚦
This week, NVIDIA (NVDA) faces a technical downtrend despite strong fundamental underpinnings. Watch for a break of the 170.00 support or 182.00 resistance to determine the next directional move. The UBS Global Tech and AI Conference may provide the catalyst needed to shift sentiment. Traders should remain flexible, manage risk, and be prepared for volatility as the market digests both technical and fundamental signals.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
Julian Vance
Julian Vance is a quantitative strategist focused on algorithmic trading in crypto and futures. His work is dedicated to exploring how traders can leverage technology and data to gain a competitive edge.
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