Nvidia (NVDA) Weekly Analysis & Outlook – Week 51 December 2025
Ideas
Dec 22, 2025
3 Min Read
In-depth weekly analysis for Nvidia (NVDA) covering technical trends, latest news, support/resistance, and actionable trade scenarios for Week 51, December 2025. Includes chart, volume, MACD, and fundamental insights.
Welcome to our comprehensive analysis of Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) for the week of December 15, 2025 (Week 51). This report integrates technical, fundamental, and news-driven perspectives to help traders and investors navigate the current landscape. 📊
Latest News & Catalysts (Past 7 Days)
H200 Export Approval to China: The U.S. government approved Nvidia's H200 AI chip sales to China with a 25% tax, causing an 8% after-hours stock surge. However, the impact is limited due to prior $4.5B write-offs and ongoing restrictions. [TheStreet]
Bank of America Raises Forecast: After a private meeting, BofA reaffirmed strong demand visibility for Nvidia's $500B Blackwell/Rubin/Networking outlook for 2025-2026, citing partnerships with OpenAI and Anthropic as upside drivers. [TheStreet]
Competitive & Regulatory Pressures: Google's Gemini 3 (trained without Nvidia chips) and Chinese competitors are raising questions about Nvidia's AI leadership. Meanwhile, regulatory scrutiny and export policy shifts add volatility. [Finviz]
Technical Analysis 🔍
Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
Trend | Downtrend – Price below 10- and 20-day EMAs; lower highs since October. |
Momentum | RSI at 39.86 (bearish, near oversold); momentum is weak. |
Support Levels | Major: $172.00 (prior swing low); Minor: $168.00. |
Resistance Levels | Major: $182.00 (EMA & volume resistance); Minor: $185.50. |
Pattern | Potential descending triangle with flat support near $172.00. |
Volume | Increasing on down moves, indicating selling pressure. |
MACD | Bearish bias; MACD not available for further detail. |
Chart Structure & Interpretation
NVDA remains in a bearish technical setup with price action below key moving averages.
The descending triangle pattern suggests a risk of further downside if $172.00 support breaks.
Volume spikes on down days reinforce the dominance of sellers.
Momentum indicators (RSI < 40) point to continued weakness, but also raise the possibility of a technical bounce if oversold conditions intensify.
Fundamental & News Impact 📰
H200 China Approval: While the export approval is a headline positive, the 25% tax and ongoing restrictions limit near-term revenue impact. The $4.5B write-off on H20 chips underscores the risk of policy-driven volatility.
AI Partnerships & Demand: Nvidia's $500B+ sales outlook, driven by Blackwell/Rubin/Networking and partnerships with OpenAI/Anthropic, remains a long-term positive, but near-term execution faces hurdles.
Competitive Threats: Google's and China's advancements in AI hardware/software highlight the need for Nvidia to maintain its innovation edge.
Regulatory Scrutiny: U.S. government review of Nvidia's AI dominance and export policies could create further volatility.
Actionable Scenarios for This Week 📅
Scenario | Key Price Levels | Potential Outcome | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
Bullish | Close above $182.00 (EMA resistance), then $185.50 | Short-term reversal possible; target $190.00+ | Consider long positions if price reclaims and holds above $185.50 on strong volume |
Bearish | Break below $172.00 (major support), then $168.00 | Continuation of downtrend; target $160.00–$168.00 | Short positions favored below $172.00 with stops above $175.00 |
Neutral | Range-bound between $172.00 and $182.00 | Choppy trading; wait for breakout confirmation | Consider straddle/strangle options or wait for clear direction |
Trade Ideas & Risk Management
Aggressive: Short at $175.00, stop-loss $178.00, target $168.00 (trend continuation).
Conservative: Wait for bounce to $181.00 resistance, short at $181.00, stop-loss $185.00, target $172.00.
Invalidation: Weekly close above $185.50 would shift bias to neutral/bullish.
Risk: Limit risk to 1–2% of capital per trade; use ATR(14) for stop placement.
Summary Table: Key Levels & Outlook
Support | Resistance | Trend | Pattern | Momentum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
$172.00 / $168.00 | $182.00 / $185.50 | Bearish | Descending Triangle | Weak (RSI < 40) |
Conclusion 🧭
Nvidia enters Week 51 of December 2025 with a bearish technical setup, pressured by macro headwinds, regulatory uncertainty, and sector competition. While long-term fundamentals remain robust, short-term risks are elevated. Traders should monitor $172.00 and $182.00 for breakout/breakdown signals and adjust risk accordingly.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a financial professional before making trading decisions.
Julian Vance
Julian Vance is a quantitative strategist focused on algorithmic trading in crypto and futures. His work is dedicated to exploring how traders can leverage technology and data to gain a competitive edge.
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