Welcome to our comprehensive weekly analysis of Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) for Week 43, October 2025. This report provides a detailed technical breakdown, the latest news and earnings context, and actionable trading scenarios for the week ahead. Whether you are a trader, investor, or market watcher, this post is designed to inform your decisions with data-driven insights. 📊

1. Chart Overview & Technical Summary

Chart timeframe: Daily (as of October 20, 2025)

• Trend: Bearish — Price is trading below key short-term moving averages, with a series of lower highs and lower lows.

• Support Levels: 1170 (minor), 1150 (major, long-term)

• Resistance Levels: 1220 (major), 1245 (minor)

• Momentum: RSI at 48.48 (neutral-bearish), indicating weak momentum.

• Pattern: Descending structure, confirming short-term downtrend.

• Volume: Declining on upward moves, supporting bearish sentiment.

• MACD: Negative crossover, reinforcing the bearish bias.

2. Latest News & Fundamental Context 📰

• Institutional Buying: Northeast Investment Management increased its NFLX holdings by 25.9% in Q2 2025, signaling renewed institutional confidence. [MarketBeat]

• Q3 Earnings Preview: Netflix is set to report Q3 2025 earnings after market close on October 21. Consensus EPS is $6.89 (+27.6% YoY), with revenue expected at $11.52B (+17.3% YoY). [Nasdaq] [Nasdaq Earnings]

• Analyst Sentiment: Upward revisions in earnings estimates (+0.7% in last 30 days) reflect positive analyst sentiment ahead of the report. [Morningstar]

3. Technical Analysis Deep Dive 📈

Support & Resistance

• Major Resistance: 1220 (recent high) — A daily close above this level would shift the short-term bias to neutral or bullish.

• Minor Resistance: 1245 (recent swing high).

• Minor Support: 1170 (recent swing low).

• Major Support: 1150 (long-term support).

Pattern & Trend

• Descending Pattern: Lower highs and lower lows dominate, indicating sellers remain in control.

• Moving Averages: Price is below both the 9- and 14-day SMAs, reinforcing the bearish trend.

MACD & Volume Interpretation

• MACD: Negative crossover, suggesting continued downside risk.

• Volume: Declining on rallies, confirming that buying interest is weak on upswings.

RSI & Momentum

• RSI: At 48.48, the indicator is neutral-bearish, not yet oversold but showing weak momentum.

4. Fundamental & News Impact 💡

• Growth Expectations: High P/E ratio (51.10) reflects strong growth expectations, but also leaves NFLX vulnerable to earnings disappointment.

• Institutional & Insider Activity: While institutional buying is a positive, recent insider selling (notably by CEO Theodore Sarandos) is a cautionary signal.

• Upcoming Earnings: The Q3 earnings report on October 21 is the key catalyst for this week. A beat could trigger a reversal, while a miss may accelerate the downtrend.

5. Actionable Scenarios for the Week 🛠️

• Aggressive Bearish: Short at 1200, SL 1225, Target 1170 (trend continuation).

• Conservative Bearish: Wait for a break below 1170, short at 1165, SL 1190, Target 1150.

• Bullish Reversal: Only consider long trades if there is a decisive daily close above 1220, with confirmation from volume and MACD.

6. Risk Management ⚖️

• Risk no more than 1% of capital per trade.

• Use ATR(14) to size stops appropriately.

• Monitor earnings volatility — expect increased movement around October 21.

7. Weekly Outlook & Summary 🔎

Netflix enters a pivotal week with a bearish technical setup, but the Q3 earnings report on October 21 could be a game-changer. Institutional buying and positive analyst revisions are constructive, but insider selling and a negative chart bias warrant caution. Watch the 1170–1220 range closely: a breakout in either direction will likely set the tone for the next leg. Stay nimble and manage risk carefully.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making trading decisions.