JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Weekly Analysis & Outlook – Week 48, November 2025
Ideas
Nov 26, 2025
3 Min Read
In-depth weekly analysis of JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) for Week 48, November 2025: technical chart review, key support/resistance, MACD, volume, news impact, and actionable trading scenarios.
Welcome to the comprehensive weekly analysis of JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) for Week 48, November 2025. This report integrates technical chart insights, the latest news, and actionable trading scenarios to help traders and investors navigate the current market environment. (Today’s date: November 24, 2025)
📰 Latest News & Fundamental Context
Q3 2025 Earnings: JPMorgan reported net income of $14.4B, EPS of $5.07, and a 20% ROTCE. Revenue rose 9% YoY to $47.1B, led by Markets, Payments (+13% YoY), Investment Banking (fees +16%), and Wealth Management (+9%). The quarterly dividend was raised to $1.50 per share. [Source]
Stock Market Performance: JPM shares declined 1.1% on November 17, trading near $300.30. Analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" rating with a consensus target price of $326–$350. Institutional holders remain strong at 71.6%. [Source]
Macroeconomic & Regulatory Outlook: Management highlighted resilience amid labor market concerns and regulatory risks. 2025 card net charge-off rates are expected at 3.3%, with 2026 net interest income projected at $95B. [Source]
📈 Technical Analysis
Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
Trend | Downtrend – Price below 20- and 50-day EMAs; confirming recent swing lows. |
Momentum | RSI at 40.42 (bearish); MACD below signal line, indicating negative sentiment. |
Support Levels | Major: $291.24; Minor: $298.00 |
Resistance Levels | Major: $306.55; Minor: $313.14 |
Chart Pattern | Double top near $313.14 with a recent breakdown. |
Volume | Increasing on declines, confirming bearish pressure. |
🔍 Interpretation
The downtrend is reinforced by price action below key moving averages and a declining RSI.
MACD remains negative, supporting a bearish bias for the week.
Volume spikes on declines suggest institutional selling and heightened risk of further downside.
The double top pattern near $313.14 signals a reversal from recent highs, with the breakdown confirming bearish momentum.
💡 Fundamental & News Impact
Strong Q3 earnings and a dividend hike reflect underlying business strength, but macro headwinds (labor market, regulatory risk) temper near-term optimism.
Despite analyst optimism and robust institutional ownership, recent insider selling and modest price declines highlight market caution.
Broader market weakness in financials and global equities (-2.9% US equities last week) may further pressure JPM shares.
📊 Scenario Outlook for Week 48 (Nov 24–29, 2025)
Scenario | Trigger/Level | Potential Move | Risk Management |
|---|---|---|---|
Bullish 🟢 | Weekly close above $313.14 | Upside toward $320–$326; trend reversal possible if confirmed by volume | Consider tight stops below $306.55; watch for false breakouts |
Bearish 🔴 | Break and hold below $298.00 | Downside to $291.24 (major support); further to $285 if momentum accelerates | Stops above $306.00; monitor volume for confirmation |
Neutral 🟠 | Range-bound $298.00–$306.55 | Choppy trading, low conviction; wait for breakout or breakdown | Reduce position size; avoid overtrading in range |
🎯 Actionable Trade Ideas
Aggressive Bearish: Sell below $298.00, stop-loss $306.00, target $291.00. Rationale: Bearish momentum continuation.
Conservative Bearish: Sell near $306.55 after a pullback, stop-loss $313.50, target $291.24.
Bullish Invalidator: Weekly close above $313.14 could shift bias to neutral or bullish.
Risk Management: Risk 1% of capital per trade; use ATR for dynamic stops.
🛡️ Risk Factors & Watchlist
Monitor macroeconomic headlines and regulatory updates for potential volatility triggers.
Watch for shifts in volume and price action at key support/resistance levels.
Track institutional flows and insider activity for sentiment clues.
📅 Weekly Summary Table
Key Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Current Price (Nov 24, 2025) | $300.30 |
Major Support | $291.24 |
Major Resistance | $306.55 |
RSI | 40.42 (Bearish) |
MACD | Below signal line (Bearish) |
Dividend Yield | ~2.0% |
Institutional Ownership | 71.6% |
🔗 References & Further Reading
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risk. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Julian Vance
Julian Vance is a quantitative strategist focused on algorithmic trading in crypto and futures. His work is dedicated to exploring how traders can leverage technology and data to gain a competitive edge.
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