Ethereum (ETHUSD) Weekly Analysis & Outlook – Week 2 February 2026
Ideas
Feb 2, 2026
3 Min Read
Comprehensive weekly analysis of Ethereum (ETHUSD) for Week 2, February 2026. Includes technical chart review, latest news, support/resistance, and actionable trading scenarios.
Ethereum (ETHUSD) – Weekly Market Analysis & Outlook
For the week beginning February 2, 2026 (Week 2)
Welcome to our in-depth, actionable analysis of Ethereum (ETHUSD) for the current trading week. This blog post covers technical chart signals, the latest news and catalysts, a breakdown of critical price levels, and clear trading scenarios for both bullish and bearish outcomes. Whether you are an active trader or a long-term investor, this analysis is designed to help you navigate the volatile world of crypto markets. 🔍
1. Executive Summary
Overall Bias: Bearish — Weekly price is below key moving averages, with strong downward momentum.
Key Support: $2,268.57 (major), $227 (minor)
Key Resistance: $2,723.51 (major), $2,648.56 (minor)
Pattern: Descending triangle with recent breakdown
Momentum: RSI at 22.94 (deep oversold), MACD negative, volume rising on declines
2. Latest News & Short-Term Catalysts (Past 7 Days)
Date | Headline | Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan 28, 2026 | MEXC predicts short-term ETH target of $3,150–$3,200, but warns of bearish MACD. | Mixed: Bullish target, but technicals remain weak short-term. | |
Jan 31–Feb 1, 2026 | JrKripto highlights ETH at key Fibonacci support ($2,136–$2,253); upside to $2,619+ if held. | Critical: Loss of support could trigger deeper correction. | |
Feb 2–6, 2026 | Forex24.pro expects bullish correction to $2,945, then possible decline below $1,335 if resistance fails. | Volatile: Conflicting short-term forecasts, high risk of swings. |
Other sources, including prediction markets, show high odds for ETH holding above $2,160–$2,400 in the very short term, but sentiment remains fragile. 📰
3. Technical Analysis
Trend: Downtrend — ETHUSD trades below both 10- and 50-day moving averages, confirming persistent bearish momentum.
Pattern: Descending triangle breakdown — typically a bearish continuation pattern, now confirmed by price action.
Momentum: RSI at 22.94 signals deep oversold conditions, which could spark a short-term bounce, but MACD remains negative, supporting the bearish bias.
Volume: Notably increasing on down days, indicating strong selling pressure and conviction among bears.
Indicator | Current Reading | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
Support | $2,268.57 (major), $227 (minor) | Major level to watch for breakdowns; minor level less likely to be tested unless panic selling resumes. |
Resistance | $2,723.51 (major), $2,648.56 (minor) | Key levels for any bullish reversal attempts; failure to reclaim these keeps bears in control. |
RSI | 22.94 | Deeply oversold; risk of short-term bounce, but not a reversal signal alone. |
MACD | Negative | Momentum remains with sellers; no bullish crossover yet. |
Volume | Rising on declines | Confirms conviction behind the downtrend; watch for volume spikes on any reversal attempt. |
Chart Structure & Price Action
The weekly chart shows a clear descending triangle, a bearish pattern, which has recently broken down. Price remains well below key moving averages, with each rally attempt quickly sold into. The oversold RSI suggests a possible relief bounce, but the dominant trend remains down unless ETHUSD can reclaim resistance above $2,723.51. 📉
4. Fundamental & News Impact
Macro & On-Chain: No major macroeconomic or regulatory news this week. On-chain data shows institutional support above $3,000, but this is now distant from current price action.
Sentiment: Prediction markets and technical analysts are split, with some calling for a bullish correction and others warning of deeper declines. The Fear & Greed Index remains in "extreme fear" territory, suggesting traders are risk-averse.
Key Risks: A loss of support at $2,136–$2,268 could trigger accelerated selling, while a reclaim of $2,723.51 would be the first sign of a bullish reversal.
5. Actionable Scenarios for the Upcoming Week
Scenario | Trigger/Confirmation | Key Levels | Potential Target | Risk Management |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Bullish 🐂 | Weekly close above $2,723.51; breakout from descending triangle | $2,723.51 (resistance), $2,945 (next resistance) | $2,945, then $3,150–$3,200 | Use tight stops below $2,648.56; risk 1–2% of capital |
Bearish 🐻 | Breakdown below $2,268.57; strong volume on declines | $2,268.57 (support), $2,136 (critical support) | $2,100, then $1,335 (if panic selling resumes) | Stop above $2,320; risk 1–2% of capital |
Neutral/Range ⚖️ | Price oscillates between $2,268.57 and $2,723.51; no clear trend | $2,268.57 (support), $2,723.51 (resistance) | Range trade: Buy dips, sell rallies within range | Reduce position size; avoid overtrading |
Trade Ideas
Aggressive: Short at $2,648.56 on a failed rally, stop loss at $2,723.51, target $2,270.
Conservative: Wait for a confirmed break below $2,268.57, short with stop at $2,320, target $2,100.
Bullish reversal: Only consider long trades if weekly close is above $2,723.51, targeting $2,945–$3,200.
6. Risk Management & Confidence Level
Risk only 1–2% of capital per trade.
Use ATR (Average True Range) for dynamic stop sizing.
Monitor volume and RSI for early reversal or exhaustion signals.
Current confidence in bearish bias is high due to trend and volume alignment, but oversold conditions warrant caution for aggressive shorts.
7. Summary Table
Bias | Support | Resistance | Pattern | Momentum | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bearish | $2,268.57 / $227 | $2,723.51 / $2,648.56 | Descending triangle breakdown | RSI 22.94 (oversold), MACD negative | Rising on declines |
8. Final Thoughts
Ethereum faces a pivotal week as it tests major support and resistance levels. The technical setup favors bears, but extreme oversold conditions could trigger a relief rally. Stay disciplined, manage risk, and watch for confirmation before acting on any scenario. ⏳
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves significant risk.
Julian Vance
Julian Vance is a quantitative strategist focused on algorithmic trading in crypto and futures. His work is dedicated to exploring how traders can leverage technology and data to gain a competitive edge.
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