Welcome to our comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) for the current week (Week 44, October 2025). This post delivers a detailed technical, fundamental, and scenario-based outlook to help traders and investors navigate the volatile crypto landscape. All insights are based on the latest chart data, news, and market context as of October 30, 2025.

📊 Weekly Chart Overview

• Trend: Bearish – Price is below key EMAs, with multiple rejections at resistance.

• Pattern: Descending triangle, increasing risk of support break.

• Momentum: RSI at 40.95 (bearish), MACD declining.

• Volume: Rising on down moves, falling on rallies.

📰 Latest News & Market Catalysts

• BTC dropped below $110,000 on October 30, 2025, marking a 2.34% decrease in 24 hours. The price has fluctuated between $112,000 and $116,000 recently, but the overall trend is downward. [Binance]

• Federal Reserve rate cut expectations have buoyed BTC earlier in the week, but recent comments from Fed Chair Powell suggest the October cut may be the last for 2025, triggering a cautious market response. [Fortune]

• October returns turn positive for BTC in 2025, but the gain is modest (0.39%), well below the historical October average (+21.89%). [Binance]

🔎 Technical Analysis

• Trend & Structure: BTCUSD remains in a downtrend, trading below the 10- and 50-week EMAs. The descending triangle pattern increases the risk of a breakdown, especially if support at 108,224 fails.

• Momentum: RSI at 40.95 signals bearish momentum, with room for further decline. MACD is negative and declining, confirming the bearish bias.

• Volume: Notably, volume spikes on down days, suggesting strong selling pressure. Rallies are met with lower volume, indicating weak buying interest.

• Support/Resistance: Immediate support is at 108,224; a break below could open the door to 105,000 or lower. Resistance stands at 111,228 and 115,135.

• Pattern: The descending triangle is a classic bearish continuation pattern. A confirmed weekly close below support would likely accelerate downside momentum.

📈 Fundamental & News Impact

• Macro factors: The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remains the dominant macro driver. The market is pricing in a 95% chance of no further cuts after October, which has tempered risk appetite.

• Market sentiment: Cautiously bearish. While October's positive return is a technical bright spot, the lack of strong bullish catalysts and persistent macro uncertainty keep traders defensive.

• Crypto sector: The total crypto market cap is around $3.86 trillion. Major altcoins are mixed, with some outperforming BTC on relative strength.

🚦 Scenario Outlook for the Upcoming Week

Actionable Trade Ideas

• Aggressive: Short at 109,000 if price continues below support, stop loss at 111,500, target 105,000.

• Conservative: Wait for a confirmed breakdown below 108,224, short at 107,500, stop loss at 110,000, target 103,000.

• Invalidation: Weekly close above 111,228 would shift bias to neutral or bullish.

• Risk management: Limit risk to 1% of capital per trade; consider ATR-based stops for volatility.

📅 Weekly Summary Table

🔔 Key Takeaways

• BTCUSD is at a critical juncture, with a bearish technical structure and macro headwinds.

• Watch 108,224 for breakdown risk; 111,228 is the first hurdle for any bullish reversal.

• Risk management is paramount in this environment.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research and consult a financial advisor before making trading decisions.